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November 09, 2008
Dire Straits
Both the behavior and rhetoric of Republicans throughout the recent campaign made it painfully clear that it would take the unprecedented election of a (nominally) black American President to provide even a shred of hope for meaningful improvement in the desperate situation eight years of Bush sponsored incompetence and greed helped create. As the marathon campaign progressed and the Bush Administration’s record was overtaken by a tidal wave of shocking economic news, there was such a good fit with the Obama campaign’s demand for change that the bad economy became a key element in his victory. Although optimism that new ideas will make a difference is implicit in any such huge political turnaround, current reality suggests that deep pessimism over both the immediate and intermediate future might be more appropriate.That’s because the complex global economy we humans have developed, particularly over the last few hundred years of rapid scientific “progress,” is now so badly compromised by multiple false assumptions about “human nature” that it could fail catastrophically in the near future, a development that would, by itself, create enormous hardship and pose a serious threat to our long term survival.
An informed look at our species’ most recent experience with global economic catastrophe reveals that complete recovery from the Great Depression required World War Two, which event was itself quickly followed by two new models for international conflict; first a Cold War lasting over four decades and raising questions about Nuclear Winter, then our current War on Terror. Both have been distractions from equally dire (and closely related) threats: overpopulation and accelerated climate change, plus looming petroleum and water shortages.
The current lack of consensus on climate change and sustainability of petroleum and water supplies, along with the incompatible economic views championed by diverse vested interests, do not auger well for the concerted responses required by even moderately pessimistic recovery scenarios.
The question then arises: how can we expect a relatively narrow election victory of the more reasonable candidate in the nation with the most profligate economy in the world to save us? That question is especially pertinent in light of the mess now roiling our largest state over its just-enacted ban on gay marriage and stubborn government resistance to reasonable implementation of a twelve year old medical marijuana initiative.
The answer is that we we have to try; but getting past our customary denial first would help.
Doctor Tom
Posted by tjeffo at November 9, 2008 12:38 AM